Forecast markets with rules, evidence, and a record.
Learn how Bayzen uses Signal Points, Canton Coin, evidence-based resolution, and Canton-native workflows to create markets across assets, protocols, projects, and ecosystem events.
v0.1 · Protocol DraftIn Development · Not Live
Current status
Bayzen is currently in development. Features described in this documentation represent the target Mainnet design unless explicitly marked otherwise.
Bayzen Signal Prediction Market
Bayzen is a Canton-native platform for creator-made prediction markets across crypto and traditional assets, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events. Research-backed forecasts become measurable, verifiable track records.
Forecasts shared online can be edited or deleted, research often lacks a measurable outcome, and follower counts do not establish forecasting skill. Bayzen gives each market a defined question, evidence source, deadline, resolution rule, and verifiable result.
Product focus
Designed for
Canton and crypto markets, stocks and ETFs, futures and perpetuals, commodities, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events.
Outside the focus
Politics, sports, entertainment, celebrity events, and random social events.
A market moves from a researched question to evidence-based resolution, settlement, and an updated performance record.
Target workflow
Eligible Creator Receives Starter SP
→
Submit Research & Forecast
→
Lock SP Bond
→
Market Review
→
Take Position with CC
→
Market Closes
→
Evidence Check
→
Provisional Outcome
→
Challenge Window
→
Final Outcome
→
CC Payout
→
SP Bond Returned
→
Publisher Reward Released
→
Signal Passport Updated
In plain language
The current app prototype simulates email verification and one generated wallet. In the target design, the application would provision or associate a wallet with a Canton Party hosted on a participant node. Market Participant and Market Creator remain non-exclusive roles on the same application identity, so changing roles does not create another wallet or Party ID.
In the Market Creator role, an eligible user submits research and a declared forecast, then locks SP as a reusable Quality Bond. Review checks the question, evidence, deadline, and resolution rules before positions open.
Eligible users other than the market creator take positions with Canton Coin. After the deadline, a separate off-chain resolver service checks the predefined evidence and submits a provisional outcome. An unchallenged result can be finalized automatically; disputed or ambiguous results move to review. Operator independence and conflict controls remain readiness requirements.
Clean resolution returns the same SP bond, pays winning participants, and releases a publisher reward equal to 20% of the settlement fee up to the cap published before opening. Participant and creator records can then be updated in Signal Passport.
Every market must be answerable through a fixed rule and predefined evidence.
Required market fields
A binary two-outcome question and category.
A clear threshold, closing date and time, and timezone.
A primary data source and a fallback data source.
A resolution rule and a cancellation rule.
Creator research and a declared forecast.
Primary example
Example market
Will the 15-minute CC/USD TWAP close above $0.18 on 30 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC?
The positive outcome wins if the predefined 15-minute TWAP is greater than $0.18. The negative outcome wins if the result is equal to or below $0.18, because the question uses the word above.
The creator's research, declared forecast, data source, calculation method, threshold, cutoff, resolution rule, and cancellation rule are locked when the market opens, before any position can be accepted. A material correction requires withdrawing and republishing the market.
Target categories
Canton & crypto
Canton assets, crypto assets, memecoins, futures, and perpetuals with approved evidence sources.
Traditional markets
Stocks, ETFs, and commodities with permitted evidence sources.
Protocol & project events
Protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events resolved under a fixed rule.
Curated scope
Categories expand only after the core lifecycle proves reliable.
Signal Points are reusable publishing capacity and a creator Quality Bond, not a tradable asset.
Protocol Draft
What SP are
Signal Points, or SP, are non-purchasable and non-transferable creation credits used to propose markets and form a reusable Quality Bond. SP are not used for positions, cannot be exchanged for CC or money, are not a cryptocurrency or Bayzen token, and have no guaranteed monetary value.
In the target design, eligible users who opt into the Market Creator role receive Starter SP only after completing creator eligibility checks. Email login and generated-wallet provisioning alone do not grant SP.
Quality Bond lifecycle
Available SP
→
Locked SP
→
Market Resolution
→
Return or Burn
When a creator submits a market, SP move from Available SP to Locked SP and become a Quality Bond. A clean final resolution returns the same SP for reuse. If review rejects a proposal before it opens, the bond returns unless review identifies a policy breach, deceptive specification, or manipulation; a rejected proposal never earns a publisher reward. An invalid or manipulative market can burn some or all of the bond. SP are never awarded for position count, volume, user count, or artificial activity.
Quality rules
Quality can consider
Question clarity, valid evidence, objective rules, clean resolution, no publisher-fault finding, policy compliance, and no self-dealing or wash trading.
Quality does not depend on
Participant count, wallet count, CC volume, linked-account activity, or artificial transaction activity.
If a market is invalid or manipulative, some or all of the bond may be burned, creator reputation may fall, and creation access may be restricted. If cancellation results from source failure, insufficient liquidity, or a system issue outside the creator's control, the bond is returned and no publisher reward is paid because no settlement occurs.
Canton Coin is the position and settlement asset in the target pooled market design.
Protocol Draft
How CC is used
CC is used for positions, settlement, payouts, refunds, and the Bayzen settlement fee. The target design uses Canton Network Token Standard workflows for CC funding, reservation, transfer, and payout while Bayzen contracts record market state and settlement authorization. CC is not used to buy SP, creator reputation, or a Signal Passport score. When a user creates a market, the same wallet and verified identity cannot take a paid position in that market, but the user may participate in markets published by other eligible creators. After clean resolution, the creator may receive only the fee-based reward defined below.
Allocation design status. CIP-0056 allocations are directed commitments with a defined sender, receiver, amount, executor, and deadline. Before Mainnet, Bayzen must validate the pool receiver and executor model, aggregation of participant allocations, cancellation and withdrawal constraints, and the payout and refund transaction flow.
Pooled pari-mutuel model
Positive-outcome positions enter the positive pool.
Negative-outcome positions enter the negative pool.
Winning positions share the distributable pool proportionally after final resolution.
Estimated payouts may change until the market closes and are not guaranteed.
Conceptual formula
Losing Pool =
Total CC on Losing Side
Settlement Fee =
Losing Pool × 2%
Gross Publisher Reward =
Settlement Fee × 20%
Protocol Cap =
Per-market CC ceiling published before opening
Final Publisher Reward =
min(Gross Publisher Reward, Protocol Cap)
Bayzen & Resolution Reserve =
Settlement Fee − Final Publisher Reward
Distributable Pool =
Total Pool − Settlement Fee
User Payout =
(User Winning Position ÷ Total Winning Pool)
× Distributable Pool
The 2% settlement fee applies only to completed markets and is deducted from the losing pool. The publisher receives 20% of that fee, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before the published per-market cap. The remaining fee supports Bayzen, resolution, and reserve. This application fee is separate from Canton network traffic costs. A cancelled market refunds all positions, charges no fee, pays no publisher reward, and returns the SP bond when the publisher is not at fault.
Model boundary
The MVP target does not describe an orderbook, automated market maker, limit orders, secondary trading, or tradable outcome tokens.
Locked publisher research, timestamps, outcomes, evidence references, and complete market history.
Participant position history, resolved results, CC profit and loss, and sample size.
Publisher clean-resolution rate, invalid-market rate, and capped reward history.
A publisher's declared probability is separate from a participant's CC position. A participant's side or stake size is not treated as probability.
A shareable Signal Passport is an application-generated summary derived from records visible to entitled parties. Publication or auditor access requires a deliberate authorization or sharing action.
Binary Brier loss
Common scoring form
(p − o)²
p = declared probability
o = final outcome, expressed as 1 or 0
lower score = better calibrated forecast
For the target MVP, Brier scoring applies to the publisher's probability locked before publication. A participant's binary position and CC stake do not by themselves produce a Brier Score.
Confidence entry, Brier scoring, calibration, and advanced Signal Passport analytics remain planned. They must not be interpreted as active product features.
Each state limits what can happen next and keeps market rules stable after positions begin.
Primary states
01
Draft
The creator prepares the question, evidence, deadline, and rules. No positions are accepted.
02
Under Review
Bayzen checks whether the proposal is clear and resolvable. Review does not guarantee approval.
03
Open
Eligible participants can take one of the market's two outcome positions with CC.
04
Closed
New positions stop. The evidence check begins after the defined deadline.
05
Provisional Resolution
The resolver submits a rule-based provisional outcome.
06
Challenge Window
Eligible challenges may be submitted with evidence before finalization.
07
Finalized
The result is final under the market's fixed rules.
08
Paid
Winning payouts or required refunds have been processed.
Alternative states
Rejected
The proposal did not pass review and never opened. Its SP bond returns unless review identifies a policy breach, deceptive specification, or manipulation.
Cancelled
The market cannot continue under its cancellation rule.
Invalid
The market cannot be resolved reliably or violated applicable rules.
Refunded
Participant CC has been returned.
Challenged
The provisional result is under review before finalization.
A hybrid model combines predefined external evidence with a Daml-enforced review window.
Resolution workflow
Market Closes
→
Resolver Reads Source
→
Provisional Outcome
→
Challenge Window
→
Automatic or Reviewed Finalization
→
Final Outcome
→
Payout
Daml does not retrieve internet data directly. An off-chain resolver reads the predefined source, applies the exact market rule, and submits a provisional outcome. Daml contracts enforce the challenge deadline, authorization, and allowed state transition; an off-chain automation service submits finalization after the deadline when no valid challenge exists.
Bayzen intervenes only when there is a dispute, source failure, or material data ambiguity. A challenged result is reviewed against the market's fixed evidence and rule before finalization. An upheld challenge may correct the provisional outcome or void the market without penalizing the publisher when the issue comes from resolver or source error. Bond slashing is reserved for publisher fault or manipulation under predeclared rules.
Illustrative CC/USD example
The resolver reads the predefined third-party 15-minute CC/USD TWAP source.
If TWAP is greater than $0.18, the provisional outcome is positive.
If TWAP is equal to or below $0.18, the provisional outcome is negative.
An unchallenged outcome can finalize automatically.
A challenged outcome is reviewed with evidence before finalization.
Creator boundaries
A creator cannot choose the outcome, change the source after opening, act as resolver or finalizer for their own market, disregard predefined rules, or cancel a market merely to avoid an outcome.
The target architecture separates authorization, contract state, token workflows, and external evidence retrieval.
Conceptual Target Architecture
Architecture
Email Login / Bayzen App
→
Generated Wallet / Canton Party
→
Eligibility Credential
→
Daml Market Contracts
→
Canton Token Standard / CC
→
Off-Chain Resolver
→
Final Outcome & Payout
→
Signal Passport
Responsibilities
In the target design, the application would provision or associate an application wallet with a Canton Party hosted on a participant node. The Party authorizes ledger actions through its signing setup while Daml contracts and Canton participant nodes enforce authorization and transaction validity. Custody, signing, recovery, and Party-hosting choices remain under review.
A Party ID represents a participant within Canton.
Daml contracts define market lifecycle and authorization rules.
Canton Token Standard supports interoperable CC workflows.
The off-chain resolver retrieves external evidence.
A planned Bayzen validator would host Bayzen-operated parties and store or execute only contract data relevant to those parties.
Canton delivers encrypted transaction views to participant nodes hosting entitled parties.
Not liveThis diagram does not claim that contracts, generated-wallet provisioning, a validator, audits, or production infrastructure are complete.
Selective disclosure applies to Bayzen application contracts. Current Canton documentation states that CC balances and transaction history are publicly visible through the network scan service.
Market Participant and Market Creator are non-exclusive roles on one generated wallet. A creator may participate in markets published by others but cannot take a paid position in their own market.
Conceptual Target Design
Own-market restriction
The own-market restriction applies to the publisher's Party ID, other wallets under the publisher's control, known linked Party IDs, and accounts under the publisher's beneficial control. It does not prevent the publisher from participating in markets published by others.
Verified Identity
→
Identity Commitment
→
Eligibility Credential
→
Registered Party IDs
Eligibility Credential
A conceptual EligibilityCredential contains an identity commitment or hash, a registered Party ID, eligibility status, expiration, and restriction status. Real-world identity or KYC data is not placed directly on the ledger.
Bayzen-generated wallets and Party IDs associated with the same verified identity use the same identity commitment. A position transaction must satisfy:
Conceptual rule
participantIdentityCommitment
must not equal
publisherIdentityCommitment
A matching commitment causes the Daml transaction to be rejected. A new Party without a valid credential cannot take a position.
Limits and protection layers
Canton does not automatically determine whether every wallet belongs to the same person and does not provide a public global wallet graph. These controls reduce risk but cannot guarantee complete prevention of identity borrowing, Sybil behavior, or collusion.
Protection layers can include verified identity, Party linking, eligibility credentials, position and market limits, app-level risk signals, manual review, SP-bond slashing, account suspension, and an appeal process. Exact fraud-detection thresholds, device signals, and risk formulas are intentionally not published.
Prediction markets involve uncertainty, evidence dependencies, and the possibility of financial loss.
Protocol Draft — subject to legal and security review.
Core risk statements
Participation can result in financial loss.
Estimated payouts are not guaranteed.
Public Mainnet access may depend on jurisdiction and eligibility.
Resolution depends on predefined sources and rules.
Data-source failure can result in cancellation and refund.
Bayzen does not guarantee profit.
Bayzen does not guarantee Featured App approval or validator rewards.
Identity controls reduce but do not eliminate Sybil and collusion risks.
Implementation status
Compliance controls and access restrictions must not be described as active until they are implemented and reviewed. This page is not a final Terms of Use or Privacy Policy, and it does not claim that KYC, AML, sanctions screening, or geo-blocking is currently active.
CCPosition and MarketPool are application-state concepts. The target design uses Canton Network Token Standard workflows for CC funding and payout; these names do not imply that a custom market contract directly holds CC.
API statusThe DevNet Bot API is available for approved Bayzen accounts. It currently records application transactions; Canton/Daml signing remains a separate execution boundary.
See the Bot & Transaction API page for the live DevNet request format and operational limits.
Scoped server-side credentials for reading a Bayzen user and submitting idempotent position transactions.
DevNet · Application transaction API
Create a bot credential
Sign in to Bayzen, open the account modal, choose Bot API, and create a token. The complete bayzen_bot_... value is displayed once. Bayzen stores only its SHA-256 hash.
account:read reads the account and its positions.
positions:write submits a Bayzen position transaction.
Keep the token in a server-side secret store. Never embed it in browser JavaScript or commit it to Git.
Retrying the same request with the same subject and Idempotency-Key returns the original response. Reusing that key with a different market, side, or amount returns HTTP 409.
Execution boundary
Not a Canton signatureThe current endpoint atomically updates the Bayzen database balance, position, market pool, and immutable ledger entry. It does not prepare or sign a Canton/Daml transaction.
Canton wallet authorization is still handled separately. A bot token cannot create or revoke another bot token, change the linked Party ID, or sign wallet commands.
A standalone copy of these calls is available in docs/BOT_API.md.
Five practical foundations inform Bayzen's approach to information aggregation, scoring, pooled settlement, and identity risk.
Core sources
Prediction Markets. Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2004), Prediction Markets (opens in a new tab). Prediction markets can aggregate distributed information when design and participation are appropriate.
Sybil Threat Model. John R. Douceur (2002), The Sybil Attack (opens in a new tab). It explains why multiple digital identities cannot automatically be treated as different people.
Research is not a guaranteeThese works inspire Bayzen's design. They do not prove that Bayzen will be profitable, manipulation-free, or secure, and they do not replace implementation review or security testing.
Short answers about the target product, protocol, and current development status.
Questions
What is Bayzen?
Bayzen is a Canton-native platform for creator-made prediction markets across crypto and traditional assets, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events. Research-backed forecasts become measurable, verifiable track records.
What markets does Bayzen support?
The target categories are Canton and crypto markets, stocks and ETFs, futures and perpetuals, commodities, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events.
What happens after email verification?
The current prototype simulates a generated wallet. In the target design, the application would provision or associate a wallet with a Canton Party; Participant and Creator roles would use that same application identity without generating another wallet when roles change.
What are Signal Points?
Signal Points are non-purchasable, non-transferable creation credits that form a Quality Bond and return for reuse after clean resolution.
Can SP be purchased or transferred?
No. SP cannot be purchased, transferred, exchanged for CC, or redeemed for money.
How does a creator receive SP again?
After a clean final resolution, the creator's locked SP bond returns for reuse. Publisher Mode does not add an automatic SP bonus.
Can a creator take a position in their own market?
No. The target design blocks the creator and registered Party IDs linked to the same identity commitment in that market. The creator may take positions in markets published by other eligible creators.
How does a creator earn from a market?
After clean resolution, Publisher Mode releases 20% of the 2% settlement fee to the creator up to the cap published before opening, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before that cap. No publisher reward is paid when a market is cancelled or invalid.
What is an Eligibility Credential?
It is a conceptual credential that links an eligible Party ID to an identity commitment and records eligibility, expiration, and restriction status without placing real-world identity data directly on the ledger.
Why are CC positions pooled?
The MVP target uses a pooled pari-mutuel design so winning participants can share the distributable pool proportionally after the final outcome.
How are estimated payouts calculated?
A participant's estimate is their share of the winning pool multiplied by the distributable pool. It can change until closing and is not guaranteed.
How are markets resolved?
An off-chain resolver reads the predefined source, applies the fixed rule, and submits a provisional outcome. Daml contracts enforce the challenge deadline and allowed transition; off-chain automation submits finalization when the result remains unchallenged.
What happens if the data source fails?
The fallback source or cancellation rule applies. If reliable resolution is impossible, positions may be refunded and the creator's bond returned when the failure was outside the creator's control. No settlement fee or publisher reward is paid.
What happens if a market is challenged?
The provisional outcome and submitted evidence are reviewed against the fixed market rule before finalization. An upheld challenge may correct the outcome or void the market; the publisher's bond is slashed only when predeclared rules establish publisher fault or manipulation.
What happens if a market is cancelled?
Participant positions are refunded. Creator SP treatment depends on whether the cancellation resulted from creator fault or an external issue.
What is Signal Passport?
Signal Passport is a planned performance record covering publisher probabilities, Brier Score, calibration, market quality, and capped reward history, with participant position results and CC profit or loss tracked separately.
Why is Bayzen built on Canton?
The target design uses Canton for Party-based authorization, privacy-aware transaction views, Daml workflows, and interoperable CC settlement.
Is Bayzen already live on Mainnet?
No. Bayzen is in development and will proceed to Public Mainnet only after all readiness checks pass.
Are profits or rewards guaranteed?
No. Participation can result in loss, estimated payouts can change, publisher rewards are conditional and capped, and validator rewards are not guaranteed.
Plain-language definitions for the core terms used throughout this documentation.
Terms
Bayzen
A Canton-native prediction market designed to turn research-backed forecasts into measurable records.
Market Creator
An eligible user who locks research, a declared forecast, and SP as a Quality Bond before publishing a market.
Participant
An eligible user who takes one of a market's two outcome positions with CC.
Positive Pool
The total CC committed to the positive outcome in a market.
Negative Pool
The total CC committed to the negative outcome in a market.
Signal Points
Non-purchasable, non-transferable creation credits that return for reuse after clean resolution.
Quality Bond
SP locked while a creator's market moves through review and resolution, then returned or burned according to the outcome.
Publisher Mode
A per-market policy state that applies when the user is the market creator. It blocks the same wallet and verified identity from paid positions in that market while allowing participation in markets created by others.
Publisher Reward
A 20% share of the 2% settlement fee up to the cap published before opening, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before that cap.
Canton Coin
The asset used for market positions, settlement, payouts, refunds, and applicable settlement fees.
Eligibility Credential
A conceptual credential recording whether a Party ID may participate.
Identity Commitment
A privacy-preserving commitment or hash used to link registered Party IDs belonging to the same eligible identity.
Party ID
A Canton identifier representing a participant in authorized workflows.
Resolver
An off-chain service that retrieves predefined evidence and calculates a provisional result.
Provisional Outcome
A rule-based result submitted before the challenge window ends.
Challenge Window
The defined period in which a provisional outcome may be disputed with evidence.
Final Outcome
The conclusive result used for payout or refund processing.
Signal Passport
A planned record that separates publisher forecast quality from participant position results.
Brier Score
A scoring method applied to the publisher's declared probability; lower binary Brier loss indicates better calibration.
TWAP
Time-weighted average price over a predefined interval.